Higher education is in a period of upheaval and uncertainty. Government policy changes and global cultural, social, and economic challenges have fostered growing pessimism among university leaders, even as global demand is actually expected to increase.
At Nous, we regularly engage with university leaders around the world to take their temperature and gauge their mood. As a result, we have seen this pessimism up close, and how hard it is right now to be leading the helm – including dealing with the mixture of denial and frustration that leaders are faced with from within their own communities. Three different Nous reports capture these issues through different lenses. But we also believe there is cause for optimism, and opportunities to be seized.
Since 2023, we have partnered with Navitas to produce the Global Survey of International Education Leaders (GSIEL). Back then, in the immediate wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, most international study destinations experienced record levels of student arrivals, driven in part by pent-up demand.
However, the boom was not without its consequences. In many countries, international students played a material role in the rapid rise in net migration, attracting the ire of politicians and their constituents as issues of housing affordability and congestion loomed large.
With the right kind of eyes, you can almost see the high-water mark: that place where the wave finally broke and rolled back. Our 2025 GSIEL report comes as many markets for international higher education –Canada and Australia, in particular – are coming under greater centralised control. It also comes at a time of increased geopolitical tensions, with global interconnectedness decelerating, and in some cases even stagnating, in a process that we call “slowbalisation”.
For all the pessimism of their responses, a least some of the university leaders we spoke to for the 2025 GSIEL report warned against “knee-jerk responses to government policy in the short-term, without longer term thinking and positioning.” This seems to us the right way to be thinking. It is feasible to strategically manage the transition from rapid, volume-driven internationalisation to a more nuanced, targeted, and integrated approach. Universities that will be well set up to thrive in this new “Managed Era”.
In our experience, to navigate this changing landscape universities should consider the following strategic actions:
- Pay closer attention to student acquisition costs, leveraging digital tools and platforms to reduce recruitment costs, enhance student experience, and lead to better conversion rates.
- Invest more in student retention, noting that early identification and intervention processes may prove more beneficial than investment in the recruitment of new students.
- Reassess core skills for internationalisation teams, exploring business models with increased emphasis on continuous in-country presence and business analytics skills at home.
- Cautiously explore offshore opportunities, such as transnational education, taking a long-term view of the market and investing in opportunities that will yield payoffs over time.
In the UK context, the impact of “slowbalisation” and the tightening of migration rules have been compounded by regulatory and financial pressures, rising costs, and new research funding schemes.
Based on our conversations with UK vice-chancellors, another of our recent reports, The road not yet taken: Four new paradigms for UK universities, identifies four paths into the future that will enable UK universities to continue to deliver transformational benefits. These paradigms – Regional Coopetition, Knowledge Superpower, Industry 5.0, and Inclusive Communities – are not mutually exclusive, but rather complementary. We believe that, by embracing the opportunities inherent in them, UK universities can leverage their strengths, sharpen their focus, and set themselves up for long-term success.
Good things, of course, always come in threes, which is why Nous will soon be releasing ‘On the precipice: Sustainability in an age of uncertainty’. Based on conversations with more than 50 senior professional services leaders from around the world, this report – the third we have produced in relation to university operations and administration, our COO reports contain useful insights into the priorities and approaches of professional service leaders. However, there’s no doubt that it is also touched by the pessimism that currently seems endemic in the sector, suggesting that confidence among senior leaders in financial sustainability has declined considerably.
We are not so pessimistic. While the current operating environment is challenging for professional services leaders, it also presents a significant opportunity to deliver fundamental changes to universities’ operations and finances.
As is always the case in the higher education sector, reconsideration of the value that universities provide, and of the strategies and operating models that deliver this value, is as good as a constant. At Nous, our belief and confidence in higher education has never wavered. We believe that with determination, discipline, and daring, universities will not only make it through the current transition period but actively thrive on the other side of it.
